Quebec Election The Morning After

Quebec election final results, the morning after.

Following General Election 2012  in Quebec

Almost a dead heat between The PQ & The Liberals. A separatist party is in power but, how much power does this minority government have? The strong opposition of 50 seats and the balance of power with the CAQ and QS will void any attempts to hold a referendum.

Popular Vote General Election 2012 Quebec

If fears of the PQ have your stomach in a knot, consider this, the PQ were elected with less than one percentage point separating them from the Liberals. That is not a populace looking to break up the country.

The Islands of Montreal and Laval covered in Liberal red with 26 seats to 8 seats in PQ blue and two orange seats for the QS. The CAQ gained zero seats in the region, however did pick up five seats in the Quebec City area to the Liberals three and PQ one.

Four big stories on the night,

• Quebec's first female Premier
• Liberal outperforming expectations
• CAQ under-performing
• Murder

Why didn't the CAQ win more seats? They finished in second in over fifty districts. Fear of the unknown and the unproven is the likely factor. The PQ won and Jean Charest lost. An adjustment was due but the PQ did not win on a mandate of separation but for a mandate for change.

Quebec Election Results

Election day is upon us. Before the last Canadian Federal election, I referred to the path to the ballot box as "the election nobody wants". I can say the same about today's Quebec provincial election, albeit for different reasons. In the case of the Federal election, the opposition parties used poor judgement and poor timing to bring down the minority Conservative Government of Stephen Harper. Canada was left with a majority government, still led by Prime Minister Harper. 

The citizens of Canada living in Quebec are faced with a different dilemma. Which party is the lesser of multiple evils? Throughout the night, I will be commenting and posting my thoughts and blogging live as the results of the Quebec election rolls in.

Stay tuned to this space as I update throughout the night.

So what do we know so far? We know that The separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ) has been leading the polls throughout the campaign and will likely win. We cannot yet predict if they will take a majority government. Polling also indicates that the Liberals will be the opposition party, yet the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) is close behind and either party can take second or third place. The other minor separatist parties have a chance to take a maximum of three seats.

6:00PM
Various news agencies have been reporting trouble at the polls. Voters have been complaining of not appearing on the electoral list. Others have complained about their names having already been crossed off the voter's list at advanced polling. Is this widespread? Human error? Intentional human error?

7:14PM
The polls close in just under one hour. Looks like a big turnout across the province with long lines at many polling stations. The higher turnout is an indication that the campaigns have generated greater interest than predicted. Voting the Liberals out? The CAQ in? We know people are not voting for separation. Only for change.

7:24PM
The various polling firms have released their results but are not quite making any predictions. Votes by percentage by party.

CROP:	PQ	32	CAQ	28	LIB	26	QS	9
EKOS:	PQ	36	CAQ	25	LIB	23	QS	11
Forum:	PQ	36	CAQ	25	LIB	29	QS	6
Léger:	PQ	33	CAQ	28	LIB	27	QS	7

All show the PQ as winning the popular vote. But how many seats?

7:45PM

8:03PM
PQ are leading. PQ are leading. Sell your house! Well, no. Only about 1% of ridings have reported and have been counted.

8:07PM
Did the pot clangers remember to put away the pots and vote?
Very early on and no trends yet.
PQ are leading in 7 ridings. Liberals in 6. CAQ in 2.

8:16PM
According to CTV, Green Party is currently holding the lead in 1 seat.
PQ in 14, Liberals in 10, CAQ in 6.

8:22PM
Will it be counted positive or negative for the Liberal Party if they finish in second and become the official opposition party? How poorly must Jean Charest Liberals do for his party to call for his resignation?
PQ 19, Liberals 15, CAQ 10.

8:26PM
PQ now leading in 22, Liberals in 21, CAQ in 12.
What does it mean if the CAQ falls short and finishes a distant third? Is it fear of the unknown than more people have not voted for Francois Legault's CAQ?

8:30PM
Does the fear of separation drive you to vote? Do prejudicial language laws bother you?
Liberals now leading in 27.
PQ 21.
CAQ 16.
West Island and Gatineau regions still haven't reported in. Good sign for the Liberals?

8:40PM
Close election. Does not appear to be a majority for anyone. Did the silent majority of Premier Jean Charest come out to vote?
Liberals 45, PQ 41, CAQ 18

8:43PM
CTV just declared a Parti Quebecois win.
Why ruin the fun?! That's like telling me the verdict half way through the episode of Law and Order.

8:47PM
I want tomorrow's headline to read:
Liberals Dump on the CAQ

PQ now leading in 54, Liberals 45, CAQ 19

8:57PM
Jean Charest losing in his own riding of Sherbrooke.
From the Quebec Election site.

9:08PM
Property values in Montreal just plummeted.
Kevin Newman suggested a coalition Liberal-CAQ government. This won't happen.
PQ-QS coalition is more likely.
PQ 60, Liberals 46, CAQ 17, Quebec Solidaire 2.

9:18PM
So the PQ forms a government with fewer people voting for them then the previous election when they finished in second place. Currently at 33% of the popular vote compared to 36% previously.
How do you run a province, with 2/3 of the people against you?
PQ now elected or leading in 59 seats.
Liberals in 46, CAQ in 18, QS in 2.

9:31PM
Amir Kadir, co-leader of the QS wins in his riding. How did you win your campaign Mr. Kadir? I would like to ask. He might just say, 1 - Get arrested 2- Protest outside your constituents stores trying to ruin their businesses 3- Have your daughter get arrested. 4 - Forget about the greater good and promote your own personal vendetta in your campaign platform?
How did he win again?
PQ now lead in 58, Liberals 47 CAQ 18, QS in 2.
These numbers won't change a whole lot from here on end. The big attention now will be on the Sherbrooke riding to see if former Premier Jean Charest will win his riding.

9:59PM
PQ leading in 56, Liberals 47, CAQ 20, QS 2
With the Conservative Party & NDP expanding in Quebec provincial politics when the PQ government falls in a year or two, what will the Assembly look like?

At this point I usually look at the ridings where my closest friends and family live. Liberals leading in 7, QS in 1, PQ in 2.

10:14PM
I was rooting for Jean Charest, not as Premier but as Member of the National Assembly. I've been a fan of his for a long time, as my former University professor and the wonder boy of the Federal Conservative party. Not so much lately. Still wanted him to win in Sherbrooke.

10:42PM
Voter turnout at 54%? Will have to wait for official numbers. What happened to the early turnout? What happened to the anger?

10:50PM
Will Charest stay on as leader of the Liberal Party?

10:54PM
So this is where the votes went

11:00PM
The obituaries on Jean Charest's career have already started. A minority PQ government is better than a majority PQ government. You don't have to put your house on the market just yet. Keep this is mind, Minority governments often work for the people instead of passing agendas of the party.

The Election Nobody Wants

Watching the English language federal election debate tonight I have a growing fear. I fear that Michael Ignatieff could be elected the next Prime Minister of Canada. I fear that the man trying to break up the country, separatist party leader Gilles Duceppe could be named the leader of the official opposition. You may not like Stephen Harper but what other options do we have? Jack Layton as leader of the NDP has returned the party from the point of near obscurity but stands no chance of leading this country.

At worst we will face a minority Conservative government. At best, Stephen Harper will be re-elected with a majority, Canada can continue to climb out of the worldwide recession as a leader in economic revival.

What Canada needs is a government to speed up its progress towards a balanced budget. There are times when it would be appropriate for a minority government to fall. Issues of urgency are obviously lacking, and as such, the elected officials have an obligation to the citizens of Canada to work together, setting aside partisan divides. This alone should be enough reason to vote against the opposition parties that brought down the government. This election is a waste of money, and a waste of time. The Liberal, BQ and NDP parties have yet to identify a critical public interest to justify an election.

Polls suggest today that 40% of the population will vote for the Conservative Party. The Liberal party is showing 31% of the nation's support. The NDP follows at 17%. The separatist BQ party follows with 7.8% (all from Quebec) and the Green Party settles in with 4%. The numbers have swayed slightly since the start of the campaigning with each party gaining or losing a percentage or two.

Does popular vote translate to getting officials elected? The BQ received 1.37 million votes in the 2008 election or only 38% of the popular vote in Quebec, yet managed to elect 49 officials out of the 75 available seats in Quebec. The vote split between federalist Liberal and Conservative parties, allowed the separatist BQ to back themselves into the House of Commons.

As for the actual debate, the opposition party leaders threw questions and accusations at Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Harper mostly concentrated on defending his strong economic reform and appeared to be addressing himself to the cameras, and therefore speaking directly to the people. 

Ignatieff may be a stronger candidate than was Stephane Dion, but he is hardly the man to lead Canada. Aside from his repetitive refrain, his accusing the Prime Minister of "stiffing" Parliament was not appropriate. Ignatieff's scowl and repetitive accusations of lying, paints him as nothing other than a one trick pony and hardly prime ministerial in bearing. 

Aside from Harper, the only other candidate who may have improved his numbers was Jack Layton. He was not perfect but a couple good lines (offering his cane to prop up the government) and his overall presence may present as an alternative to some.

It seems the participants changed tactics in the latter portion of the debate. Perhaps figuring that those viewers with short attention spans have since flipped channels and are now watching NCIS, or perhaps, The Biggest Loser. (There is a joke there). With the more serious and interested voters tuned in, the leaders stopped slinging insults at Prime Minister Harper and debated amongst each other.  As I mentioned, I have issue with some of the language Ignatieff used. I can't tell you how to vote. But I will leave you with the old adage, vote early and - vote often.