Quebec Election The Morning After

Quebec election final results, the morning after.

Following General Election 2012  in Quebec

Almost a dead heat between The PQ & The Liberals. A separatist party is in power but, how much power does this minority government have? The strong opposition of 50 seats and the balance of power with the CAQ and QS will void any attempts to hold a referendum.

Popular Vote General Election 2012 Quebec

If fears of the PQ have your stomach in a knot, consider this, the PQ were elected with less than one percentage point separating them from the Liberals. That is not a populace looking to break up the country.

The Islands of Montreal and Laval covered in Liberal red with 26 seats to 8 seats in PQ blue and two orange seats for the QS. The CAQ gained zero seats in the region, however did pick up five seats in the Quebec City area to the Liberals three and PQ one.

Four big stories on the night,

• Quebec's first female Premier
• Liberal outperforming expectations
• CAQ under-performing
• Murder

Why didn't the CAQ win more seats? They finished in second in over fifty districts. Fear of the unknown and the unproven is the likely factor. The PQ won and Jean Charest lost. An adjustment was due but the PQ did not win on a mandate of separation but for a mandate for change.

Quebec Election Results

Election day is upon us. Before the last Canadian Federal election, I referred to the path to the ballot box as "the election nobody wants". I can say the same about today's Quebec provincial election, albeit for different reasons. In the case of the Federal election, the opposition parties used poor judgement and poor timing to bring down the minority Conservative Government of Stephen Harper. Canada was left with a majority government, still led by Prime Minister Harper. 

The citizens of Canada living in Quebec are faced with a different dilemma. Which party is the lesser of multiple evils? Throughout the night, I will be commenting and posting my thoughts and blogging live as the results of the Quebec election rolls in.

Stay tuned to this space as I update throughout the night.

So what do we know so far? We know that The separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ) has been leading the polls throughout the campaign and will likely win. We cannot yet predict if they will take a majority government. Polling also indicates that the Liberals will be the opposition party, yet the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) is close behind and either party can take second or third place. The other minor separatist parties have a chance to take a maximum of three seats.

6:00PM
Various news agencies have been reporting trouble at the polls. Voters have been complaining of not appearing on the electoral list. Others have complained about their names having already been crossed off the voter's list at advanced polling. Is this widespread? Human error? Intentional human error?

7:14PM
The polls close in just under one hour. Looks like a big turnout across the province with long lines at many polling stations. The higher turnout is an indication that the campaigns have generated greater interest than predicted. Voting the Liberals out? The CAQ in? We know people are not voting for separation. Only for change.

7:24PM
The various polling firms have released their results but are not quite making any predictions. Votes by percentage by party.

CROP:	PQ	32	CAQ	28	LIB	26	QS	9
EKOS:	PQ	36	CAQ	25	LIB	23	QS	11
Forum:	PQ	36	CAQ	25	LIB	29	QS	6
Léger:	PQ	33	CAQ	28	LIB	27	QS	7

All show the PQ as winning the popular vote. But how many seats?

7:45PM

8:03PM
PQ are leading. PQ are leading. Sell your house! Well, no. Only about 1% of ridings have reported and have been counted.

8:07PM
Did the pot clangers remember to put away the pots and vote?
Very early on and no trends yet.
PQ are leading in 7 ridings. Liberals in 6. CAQ in 2.

8:16PM
According to CTV, Green Party is currently holding the lead in 1 seat.
PQ in 14, Liberals in 10, CAQ in 6.

8:22PM
Will it be counted positive or negative for the Liberal Party if they finish in second and become the official opposition party? How poorly must Jean Charest Liberals do for his party to call for his resignation?
PQ 19, Liberals 15, CAQ 10.

8:26PM
PQ now leading in 22, Liberals in 21, CAQ in 12.
What does it mean if the CAQ falls short and finishes a distant third? Is it fear of the unknown than more people have not voted for Francois Legault's CAQ?

8:30PM
Does the fear of separation drive you to vote? Do prejudicial language laws bother you?
Liberals now leading in 27.
PQ 21.
CAQ 16.
West Island and Gatineau regions still haven't reported in. Good sign for the Liberals?

8:40PM
Close election. Does not appear to be a majority for anyone. Did the silent majority of Premier Jean Charest come out to vote?
Liberals 45, PQ 41, CAQ 18

8:43PM
CTV just declared a Parti Quebecois win.
Why ruin the fun?! That's like telling me the verdict half way through the episode of Law and Order.

8:47PM
I want tomorrow's headline to read:
Liberals Dump on the CAQ

PQ now leading in 54, Liberals 45, CAQ 19

8:57PM
Jean Charest losing in his own riding of Sherbrooke.
From the Quebec Election site.

9:08PM
Property values in Montreal just plummeted.
Kevin Newman suggested a coalition Liberal-CAQ government. This won't happen.
PQ-QS coalition is more likely.
PQ 60, Liberals 46, CAQ 17, Quebec Solidaire 2.

9:18PM
So the PQ forms a government with fewer people voting for them then the previous election when they finished in second place. Currently at 33% of the popular vote compared to 36% previously.
How do you run a province, with 2/3 of the people against you?
PQ now elected or leading in 59 seats.
Liberals in 46, CAQ in 18, QS in 2.

9:31PM
Amir Kadir, co-leader of the QS wins in his riding. How did you win your campaign Mr. Kadir? I would like to ask. He might just say, 1 - Get arrested 2- Protest outside your constituents stores trying to ruin their businesses 3- Have your daughter get arrested. 4 - Forget about the greater good and promote your own personal vendetta in your campaign platform?
How did he win again?
PQ now lead in 58, Liberals 47 CAQ 18, QS in 2.
These numbers won't change a whole lot from here on end. The big attention now will be on the Sherbrooke riding to see if former Premier Jean Charest will win his riding.

9:59PM
PQ leading in 56, Liberals 47, CAQ 20, QS 2
With the Conservative Party & NDP expanding in Quebec provincial politics when the PQ government falls in a year or two, what will the Assembly look like?

At this point I usually look at the ridings where my closest friends and family live. Liberals leading in 7, QS in 1, PQ in 2.

10:14PM
I was rooting for Jean Charest, not as Premier but as Member of the National Assembly. I've been a fan of his for a long time, as my former University professor and the wonder boy of the Federal Conservative party. Not so much lately. Still wanted him to win in Sherbrooke.

10:42PM
Voter turnout at 54%? Will have to wait for official numbers. What happened to the early turnout? What happened to the anger?

10:50PM
Will Charest stay on as leader of the Liberal Party?

10:54PM
So this is where the votes went

11:00PM
The obituaries on Jean Charest's career have already started. A minority PQ government is better than a majority PQ government. You don't have to put your house on the market just yet. Keep this is mind, Minority governments often work for the people instead of passing agendas of the party.

Urban Scrawl - Problems With Graffiti

Graffiti has always been a problem in the city. The latest problems related to graffiti may be far worse than anticipated. For lack of anything more convincing, let us blame the digital age for the drain on imagination. Good job Ron, whoever you are. The owners of the famed 'Panasonic' building at this busy Montreal intersection reacted quickly. Perhaps because they are slightly ahead of their time, they decided to clean this blight before I had the chance to go back and take a better picture.

After

Before

As you see the graffiti was not cleaned simply because of the mess it created but, likely because they did not want to be associated with such unimaginative work. Nice tag Ron.
Update - Driving around town this last week I spotted Ron's lousy tags on two separate spots. Although in relative close proximity, Ron gets around. The tags are in three different cities on the Island of Montreal. I am guessing it is a kid vandalizing various signs but it amused me to find three such tags in a short span of time.

Canadian Election Results - The Day After

The Canadian election results of May 2nd, 2011 were historic. Anger and want for change motivated the voters. Federally the country elected a majority Conservative government after consecutive minority governments. The NDP moved to official opposition status for the first time ever and the 104 seats were the most they had ever won. The biggest change came in Quebec with the separatist BQ getting wiped off the map. Federalists Canada-wide can rejoice that a loud voice to break up the country has been silenced. Not only did the BQ win only four seats, down from 49 in 2008, but party leader Gilles Duceppe lost his seat in parliament. Duceppe as a result, has stepped down as leader. Michael Ignatieff, head of the Liberal Party of Canada, also lost his seat. Expect Ignatieff to make a decision in the days to come. If his party is behind him, someone will step aside so that he may sit in Parliament. Or, we may have a Liberal leaders conference.

Last night, before the results started coming in I projected different results. I am pleased I was wrong. Considering the political strengths and weaknesses this was the best possible scenario. A majority government, a new look opposition party and, of course the BQ returns to the fringes where they belong. The Liberals were going nowhere under Ignatieff. The downfall for them started at the end of the Jean Chretien era but took a big hit under Stephane Dion. Under a new leader they will rebound, perhaps even to opposition party status in four years. Four years! No elections for four years. And you can probably start calling Quebec the swing province. I would bet the NDP will lose a large number of their seats in four years. Four years now, we may be tired of the rulings Conservatives. Considering the circumstances this was the best possible result.

The breakdown is as follows:

CONSERVATIVE 167

NDP 102

LIBERAL 34

BLOC QUEBECOIS 4

GREEN 1

INDEPENDENT 0

Media Coverage of the Elections

Switching to the television network coverage, the big three networks in Canada provided wall to wall coverage starting at approximately 9PM eastern time and broadcasted late into the night. Due to the laws governing the release of election results, each outlet across the country was forbidden to release information until all the polls were closed. The tweet the vote movement on Twitter attempted to spread the word sooner. And the CBC may have broken the Election Canada law by airing their feed from Newfoundland and Labrador in Toronto shortly after 9PM last night. CBC went off the air briefly following this.

What happened to the local coverage? I can only speak for the Montreal market. None of the three stations had any sustained television coverage. I flipped the three local English stations throughout the night, Global kept to the National feed, CTV's Lloyd Robertson stumbled through the coverage all night. And a nervous sounding Peter Mansbridge did a credible job at the CBC. I could have missed it on the other networks but the CBC was the only one of the three to cut away to the local affiliate, where Montreal anchor Andrew Chang raced through the local results in small amount of time he was allotted. The local coverage on CTV consisted of cutaways to the Toronto anchor desk. This is information I want, but what happened to Montreal?

Each one of the French stations provided the coverage of the province but this is the first time in my memory that the English stations did not provide any coverage. I stopped watching at 11:45PM local time.

The CTV's Lloyd Robertson announced his retirement a few months back. The 78-year old anchor is winding down his career and this is his last election as a full time anchor. Robertson stumbled through the results throughout the night and even made reference to being put in handcuffs. Did he giggle at one point? Robertson has always been a brilliant announcer but may have stayed one election too long. 

The CBC's Peter Mansbridge, Mister Smooth, the perfect voice, has always excelled in the 'Live' environment. Last night, while he stood out as out as the best of the announcers, strangely, he looked nervous and unsure at times. 

Election Results Across Canada

Canadian Election Results

Here are the election results. Two things have been on the minds of Canadians for the last 36 days, hockey and the elections. Since I know something about hockey, I thought why not take that leap and write about politics? As such, I will use my hockey pool draft method to project the outcome of tonight's Canadian federal election. My plan is to update this space as the night progresses. Stay tuned here for election night results. I will not reveal the secrets behind my methodology, I will tell you though that I generally finish it the top three in any given year in my hockey pool. If you have not read my stories before, yes, I am joking. Sort of.

May 2nd, 8:22PM eastern - projection CON 145 seats, NDP 82 seats, LIB 52 seats, BQ 27, Green 1, IND 1.

Election Results

In the last election in 2008, the Conservatives were elected to a minority government with 143 seats. Up until a couple weeks ago, it was a surety that Stephen Harper would be re-elected, this time to majority government. The late surge in the polls by Jack Layton and the NDP may have put the hopes of majority government to rest. Layton would make a strong leader of the opposition. I fear his party's platform were he ever, my some miracle, elected to the Prime Minister's office.

Voter turnout in the last election was a record low 58.8%. With no new themes to the party platforms, anger over a fourth election in seven years, it was thought that this years turnout would rival the low levels of 2008. But something happened. At first it was a backlash against the opposition parties for springing the election upon the Canadian population. Then it was the spike of interest following the leaders' debates and then the collapse of the BQ in the province of Quebec that matched the rise of the NDP in the polls.

We should start seeing the results in a little more than 45 minutes from now. Feel free to post your projections. Just click the blue Response button below.

9:00PM eastern and we are anticipating some change. One hour from now we should see the official results from elections Canada.

9:10PM Late polls are showing the most seats the Conservatives could expect are 157. In a perfect world we will get a Stephen Harper led majority government. Anything less than 155 and look for the opposition parties to back Jack Layton to lead the country.
Watching CTV news, I am thinking this will be Lloyd Robertson's final election night coverage. Or should be.

9:43PM Conservatives are leading or have been elected in 25 ridings. Liberals 21, NDP 15, BQ 0, Green 0, Other 0...

9:45PM CTV has declared a Conservative win. Not exactly a stretch.

9:48PM CON 48, NDP23, LIB 21, BQ 3

9:49PM Peter Mansbridge on CBC is making more sense than Lloyd Robertson.

9:53PM York Centre - Ken Dryden is trailing in the early polls. Mind you, only 3% have reported in.

9:56PM CON 95, NDP 42, LIB 33, BQ 3
Popular vote CON 37% NDP 29% LIB 28%

9:58PM Government House Leader John Baird re-elected in Ottawa-West Nepean.

10:03PM Conservatives 133, NDP 69, Liberals 27, BQ 4

Popular Vote percentage Conservatives 38.2 NDP: 29.8 Liberals 27.9 Other: 4.1

What is bigger news? That the NDP will become the official opposition for the first time and will win a record number of seats or that the Liberal party will finish in third place for the first time? Or the possibility of two party leaders losing their seats?

10:10PM CON 137, NDP 87, LIB 29, BQ 6
So far, no results from my riding. The BQ have been blocked.

10:12PM Looks like my projections are off. Like I started off saying, I usually finish in the top three. I never said that I win.

10:23PM. Both Ignatieff and Duceppe are getting trounced in their ridings. Harper and Layton are doing fine.

10:30PM Majority government? CON 150 NDP 105 LIB 32 BQ 3

10:39PM I declare a Majority Conservative government. Unless the results are different.

10:47 A friend of mine, let's call him Stimpy, just admitted to me that he moved to Gilles Duceppe's riding of Laurier-Sainte-Marie with the intention of ousting him. Stimpy didn't do much except for sitting on his couch and drink beer, but it worked. It appears that Duceppe will lose his seat.

Harper and Layton have been re-elected.

Conservatives leading or elected in 165 seats, NDP in 103 seats, Liberals 32, BQ 4, Other 1.

11:03PM The latest results from across Canada, the Conservative party has won a majority, Stephen Harper is still Prime Minister of Canada. And results from Toronto, George St. Pierre is still Welterweight Champion.

11:08PM Con 169, NDP 104, LIB 32, BQ 2, GRN 1
Looks like Green Party leader Elizabeth May won her seat. I saw her deputy party leader and former NHL hockey player Georges Laracque on Saturday.

Some of the Montreal Island Liberal candidates are re-elected. Justin Trudeau, Marc Garneau, Denis Coderre, Irwin Cotler, Stephane Dion. Too bad for Conservative candidates Saulie Zajdel and Neil Drabkin, both are good guys and would have represented their ridings very well.

Does this mean Ignatieff is going back to the United States?

11:28PM Montreal results are not quite final... but it is official, Gilles Duceppe lost his seat. Too close to call, the BQ are in two very tight races and are leading or elected in three. In this case, two out of three is bad.

The Election Nobody Wants

Watching the English language federal election debate tonight I have a growing fear. I fear that Michael Ignatieff could be elected the next Prime Minister of Canada. I fear that the man trying to break up the country, separatist party leader Gilles Duceppe could be named the leader of the official opposition. You may not like Stephen Harper but what other options do we have? Jack Layton as leader of the NDP has returned the party from the point of near obscurity but stands no chance of leading this country.

At worst we will face a minority Conservative government. At best, Stephen Harper will be re-elected with a majority, Canada can continue to climb out of the worldwide recession as a leader in economic revival.

What Canada needs is a government to speed up its progress towards a balanced budget. There are times when it would be appropriate for a minority government to fall. Issues of urgency are obviously lacking, and as such, the elected officials have an obligation to the citizens of Canada to work together, setting aside partisan divides. This alone should be enough reason to vote against the opposition parties that brought down the government. This election is a waste of money, and a waste of time. The Liberal, BQ and NDP parties have yet to identify a critical public interest to justify an election.

Polls suggest today that 40% of the population will vote for the Conservative Party. The Liberal party is showing 31% of the nation's support. The NDP follows at 17%. The separatist BQ party follows with 7.8% (all from Quebec) and the Green Party settles in with 4%. The numbers have swayed slightly since the start of the campaigning with each party gaining or losing a percentage or two.

Does popular vote translate to getting officials elected? The BQ received 1.37 million votes in the 2008 election or only 38% of the popular vote in Quebec, yet managed to elect 49 officials out of the 75 available seats in Quebec. The vote split between federalist Liberal and Conservative parties, allowed the separatist BQ to back themselves into the House of Commons.

As for the actual debate, the opposition party leaders threw questions and accusations at Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Harper mostly concentrated on defending his strong economic reform and appeared to be addressing himself to the cameras, and therefore speaking directly to the people. 

Ignatieff may be a stronger candidate than was Stephane Dion, but he is hardly the man to lead Canada. Aside from his repetitive refrain, his accusing the Prime Minister of "stiffing" Parliament was not appropriate. Ignatieff's scowl and repetitive accusations of lying, paints him as nothing other than a one trick pony and hardly prime ministerial in bearing. 

Aside from Harper, the only other candidate who may have improved his numbers was Jack Layton. He was not perfect but a couple good lines (offering his cane to prop up the government) and his overall presence may present as an alternative to some.

It seems the participants changed tactics in the latter portion of the debate. Perhaps figuring that those viewers with short attention spans have since flipped channels and are now watching NCIS, or perhaps, The Biggest Loser. (There is a joke there). With the more serious and interested voters tuned in, the leaders stopped slinging insults at Prime Minister Harper and debated amongst each other.  As I mentioned, I have issue with some of the language Ignatieff used. I can't tell you how to vote. But I will leave you with the old adage, vote early and - vote often.

Broken Water Main and I'm Getting Thirsty

No water for you. No water for me. A broken water main or drain pipe caused a mini flood in my neighbourhood. This is a regular occurrence on the Island of Montreal. While there have been fewer reported breaks in the water system this year compared to last, the underground water works is ancient by most standards. Age and neglect has caused pipes to burst numerous times in recent years.
The city workers have been at it all day digging, plugging, sewing and melding. And still I have no water. I was out for most of the day so it really hasn't been much of a problem. My brita is half filled and on the way home I picked up two 4 litre jugs of water. I had a harder time in the winter when the power went out for 12 hours. I couldn't watch TV and couldn't post to my blog. It is not all that easy reading by flashlight and candlelight.

At least City Works is close

No water!

Dig Faster!

I've become a little paranoid after the H1N1 and various flu scares of the last few years. Every time I arrive home I wash my hands. It felt a little strange not being able to wash up earlier. So far, the lack of water has not forced me to resort to barbarism. Although, I did have to slay two of my neighbours as they tried to loot my stores of water. I have their heads up on pikes in front of my door to ward off any other potential aggressors.